lundi 19 mai 2014

Is Rafael Nadal still the French Open favorite?


When the French Open begins Sunday, eight-time champion Rafael Nadal will find himself in an unfamiliar position: He won’t be the prohibitive favorite to win the title. The clay-court virtuoso has experienced some uncharacteristic struggles in 2014, which make him the most vulnerable he’s ever been entering a French Open.
Nadal only won one tournament during the European clay court swing (he’s never won fewer than two and usually wins three). He blew a lead to Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s Rome final. There were other springtime losses to Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer. Nadal was pushed to three sets by Gilles Simon, Mikhail Youzhny and Andy Murray. And if not for Kei Nishikori’s back injury that flared up during the Madrid final, Nadal may have gone 0-for-Europe.
Oddsmakers have installed Nadal as a co-favorite to win the French, getting 5/4 odds to Djokovic’s slightly higher 11/8. This begs the question: Can Nadal be the favorite if he hasn’t been the best clay player in 2014? Or on the flip side, can Nadal not be the favorite at a tournament where he’s a lifetime 59-1?

1. Nadal lost more clay-court matches in the past month (3) than he did in any season since 2005.

 

Nadal has never lost three clay matches in any season since he first won at Roland Garros in 2005. In the one-month stretch from Apr. 18 to May 18, he lost three times. That’s the same amount of clay losses he had in the past two seasons combined.

2. He lost more sets in Rome (5) than he did in all of his clay-court matches in 2012 (3).

 

Losing five sets, as Nadal did in Rome, used to a bad season for Nadal. There were a lot of hard-to-stomach statistics coming from this clay campaign.
Before losing in Barcelona to Almagro, Nadal hadn’t dropped a single set at the tournament since 2008. The loss to Ferrer was the first time Nadal was bested on clay by his fellow Spaniard since 2004. These weren’t lightning-in-a-bottle wins either, the kind where an opponent has the match of his life to upset a great champion. The questionable losses and surprising three-setters involved top-30 players. Nadal simply looked mortal. He failed to consolidate breaks, had trouble putting away matches, played loose on break opportunities and was hitting more errant shots than usual. There were still the flashes of brilliance, of course, but there were flashes of mediocrity thrown in too.

3. His winning percentage dipped 17 points from his 10-year average

 

From 2005 through the first two matches in Monte Carlo, Nadal had a staggering 295-11 clay-court record, which is a 96.4 winning percentage. Since then, he’s gone 11-3 (78.6%).

4. Nadal’s winning percentage during his “slump” is still better than the career average of every active player.

 

It’s easy to lose perspective. For anyone else, one title, one finals loss and an 11-3 record during the European swing would be an exceptional way to enter the French Open. For Nadal, it’s catastrophe.
All of these numbers are only surprising because Nadal set the bar so high. We’ve been spoiled by his greatness so much that it makes the very good seem pedestrian. That 78.6 winning percentage is better than the lifetime clay winning percentages of every active player, including Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Nadal’s worst is better than everybody else’s best.
That’s why he’s still the favorite at the French Open. Even with the struggles, he has to be. This isn’t 2008, when you could start inscribing Nadal’s name on the trophy before he even arrived in Paris. But he’s still the man to beat, no matter how rough the rest of the season was.
When you’ve won eight of nine, it’s always your tournament to lose. The difference this time? For the first time in years, it’s also anyone’s tournament to win.
 As long as he’s healthy, Rafael Nadal will always be the favorite at Roland Garros — not a co-favorite, not a contender, but the favorite.

Source: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/rafael-nadal-french-open-favorite-novak-djokovic

 

 

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